New England Republican
The ramblings of a lonely Republican stranded in the People's Republic of Massachusetts.


New England Republican has moved to its own domain. All of this blog's posts have been moved over to the new site so please update your bookmarks and blogrolls. The new address is http://www.nerepublican.com.

Sunday, May 30, 2004

Poll Manipulation

I know I've said it before, but I'm going to scream this out one more time.

LOOK AT THE DETAILS AND METHODOLOGY BEHIND THE POLLS!

A month ago yesterday, I pointed out (with the assistance of RealClearPolitics) that the NY Times/CBS poll had skewed its results by polling more Democrats than Republicans.

Well here it is a month later and all I have heard all week is that the new CBS poll (not sure if NY Times is affiliated with this one) is showing Bush in major trouble. In various blogs I've also read that the "internals" of the poll show even more problems for Bush. Well it's all BS!

Here is the breakdown of respondents in the newest CBS poll:
  • 346 Republicans
  • 390 Democrats
  • 377 independents
The "weighted" numbers are even worse:
  • 330 Republicans
  • 401 Democrats
  • 381 Independents
Captain Ed explains how skewed this is:
According to the University of Pennsylvania in 2003, Republicans accounted for 32.5% of the registered electorate, while Democrats accounted for 33.7%. In a sample of 1113 voters, you would then expect to see 361-R, 375-D, 376-I. The result CBS's sample is to throw off representation for Republicans by 8.6%, while bolstering Democrats by 7% and independents by 1.3%, using CBS' weighting.
That is a skew of over 15 points in favor of the Democrats. It is hardly surprising that the network that promotes a new Bush bashing book every week would manipulate its polling in order to prop up Kerry, but would it be that hard for every other news source who quotes the results to put them in proper perspective?

Just another example of liberal bias in the media. Be sure to read Captain Ed's and RealClearPolitics more detailed posts on this blatant poll manipulation.