Alexander K. McClure of PoliPundit informs us that Kerry has achieved what nobody thought possible. Coming out of the convention, Kerry failed to see a bounce and actually lost ground in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Kerry went from one point up before the convention to 4 points down.

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Kerry trailed Bush 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/–4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.

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But Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said "history doesn't bode well" for Kerry. Since World War II, every challenger who has unseated a president has led after his convention.

When the convention first started I said "If it is a small bounce, he is toast". Well, we better get out the butter!

All kidding aside, the election is still basically even and could go either way. But, this does not bode well for Kerry especially considering the Bush campaign is only just beginning to get serious.

Captain Ed thinks Kerry is his own worst enemy:

Why did Kerry's numbers drop after the convention? Because Kerry is his own worst enemy, and every time he speaks to the nation as a whole, his support erodes. The only points during the entire campaign when Kerry made inroads against Bush has been when Kerry was off the campaign trail. Kerry made his prime-time pitch to America, and America yawned.

In this context, having his campaign advertising "go dark" might not just provide a financial lifeline but a strategic lifeline as well. Democrats should consider having Kerry stop campaigning altogether, as so far -- despite his third "reintroduction" to American voter -- he has proven to be his highest obstacle to success.

Keep in mind that the Gallup poll was of likely voters which is the most accurate type of poll. Two other polls also show trouble for Kerry. The latest Newsweek poll shows a 4 pont gain for Kerry, which is the smallest gain after a convention that Newsweek has ever polled.

Kerry’s four-point “bounce” is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. There are several factors that may have contributed to the limited surge, including the timing of the poll. On Thursday, Kerry had just a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent), suggesting that his Friday night speech had a significant impact. Additionally, Kerry’s decision to announce his vice-presidential choice of John Edwards three weeks before the convention may have blunted the gathering’s impact. And limited coverage by the three major networks also may have hurt Kerry.

The Newsweek poll is only of adults, which is the least accurate. Power Line also points out that the Newsweek poll oversampled Democrats. Here is the breakdown:

Republicans 30%
Democrats 38.5%
Independents 31.5%

So most likely Kerry had no bounce at all. The Rasmussen poll has also shown no bounce for Kerry.